'Big jolt' foreseen

A Dahlman Rose analyst issued a raft of dry-bulk stock upgrades Tuesday because of what he sees as a potential "frenzy" for bulkers later this year.

"We think there could be a big jolt in the second half toward the upside," analyst Omar Nokta told TradeWinds.

After his outlook became more gloomy last summer, Nokta said Tuesday that his outlook has become more positive of late because of changing market dynamics.

The bulker market has seen a recent upward trend because Chinese stimulus efforts are making an impact more quickly than expected, he explained.

A rise in steel prices could lead to a bulker frenzy.

Steel prices should rise with demand, but production levels could take four to six weeks to catch up, the analyst says.

"In that time frame, you could have a big run-up in steel prices, steel mills would be making a lot more money, and it could create a frenzy for dry bulk," Nokta said.

Nokta upgraded seven US-listed bulker owner stocks. His ratings on Diana Shipping, Eagle Bulk Shipping, Genco Shipping & Trading, Paragon Shipping, Safe Bulkers and Star Bulk Carriers rose from "hold" to "buy". Excel Maritime Carriers saw its rating rise from "sell" to "hold".

"Hold"-rated DryShips, Golden Ocean, Navios Maritime Holdings and TBS International were unaffected by the upgrades.

Nokta hiked his rate forecasts, and he said bulker values could improve by 20% in the months to come.

"While the increase in earnings potential for the dry bulk group supports equity valuations, we believe a more important issue is the potential return to compliance with prior debt covenants on improving vessel valuations," the analyst said in a note to clients.

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